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02.07.2024 10:15 AM
The ECB needs more time and data
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President Christine Lagarde and her chief economist stated yesterday that the European Central Bank does not yet have sufficient evidence to conclude that the threat of inflation has passed. This fuels expectations that officials will unlikely proceed with further interest rate cuts this month. Although inflation data for the eurozone for June is set to be released soon, and if we see a decrease in figures following a slight increase in May, the regulator may take a more dovish stance on future policy.

However, considering that the labor market in the eurozone remains at a fairly good level, the ECB still has time to wait for new information related to the economy. "We are still facing some uncertainties regarding future inflation, especially regarding how core prices will change, wages will grow, and productivity will be like. It is now important to understand whether the economy will suffer from new supply-side shocks," Lagarde said. "We will need time to gather enough data to ensure the risks of exceeding the inflation target have passed."

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As I noted above, all this suggests a preference to keep borrowing costs unchanged at the meeting later this month. Investors are particularly interested in Lagarde's statements on how the ECB will proceed with rate cuts.

It is also worth mentioning that yesterday, there was no discussion of the political struggle in France, nor were there specific indications regarding the ECB's future actions. However, Lagarde reaffirmed her commitment to making decisions as data comes in. "A strong labor market means we can take our time to gather new information, but we also need to remember that the economic growth outlook remains uncertain," she said. "All this points to our data-dependent stance in making policy decisions."

Lagarde also noted that officials' assessment of inflation prospects is based on forecasts but is not limited to them, refuting analysts' assumptions that the ECB would only consider changing rates at quarterly meetings.

She also emphasized that any particular statistic will not sway policymakers, as it has been repeatedly noted that the path back to 2% will be bumpy and may include temporary setbacks. "While the new flow of data constantly supplements and improves our picture of medium-term inflation, we are not committing ourselves to any specific point at which we will definitively act," Lagarde said. "Data dependence does not mean dependence on achieving exact outcomes."

Regarding the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers must focus on capturing the 1.0740 level. Only this will allow aiming for a test of 1.0770. From there, it could climb to 1.0790, but achieving this without support from major players will be quite challenging. The ultimate target would be a maximum of 1.0815. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument, I expect serious action from major buyers only around the 1.0720 area. If there is no support, it would be prudent to wait for a retest of the 1.0695 minimum or open long positions from 1.0630.

Regarding the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to capture the nearest resistance at 1.2655. Only this will allow aiming for 1.2670, which will be challenging to break through. The ultimate target would be the 1.2700 area, after which we could discuss a more significant upward surge to 1.2730. In case of a fall, the bears will try to take control of 1.2610. If successful, breaking this range will seriously blow the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD to the 1.2580 minimum with a prospect of reaching 1.2550.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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