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11.06.2019 04:14 AM
风险回归外汇,欧洲央行说了一件事,并且将会做另一件事

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在美国和墨西哥缔结移民协议以防止新的关税战争之后,墨西哥比索避免了崩溃,甚至在本周初上涨了2%以上。 该协议支持恢复投资者的风险偏好,这对美元产生了积极影响并降低了日元的价值。 在美国总统唐纳德特朗普以关税威胁墨西哥之后,最近几周投资者一直在积极买入日元,但现在正在远离避风港。

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周一,美元开始复苏,其中包括投资者意识到他们对美联储降低利率的可能性的评估过高的原因。 美元指数上涨0.3%至96.824点。 就欧元而言,该货币也上涨0.3%至1.1304美元,而单一货币则面临欧洲央行官员的压力,他们准备在经济增长疲软的情况下降低利率。 反过来,在签署移民协议后,墨西哥比索增长了2%以上,达到每美元19.2275比索。 然而,尽管预计风险资产的需求将在本周初增加,但人们应该注意风险偏好恢复的稳定性,特朗普可能随时启动其他贸易冲突。

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日元系统地放弃以前捕获的高度。 日元汇率下跌0.4%,之后兑美元跌至108.65,尽管仍比4月份的水平强3.3%。 在美国与墨西哥达成协议的背景下,正在增长,可能会扩散到与中国的贸易争端,也许市场将在这方面取得一些进展。 欧洲央行会议结束后,欧元从周五触及的近期高点回落,投资者认为这比预期更为激进。 由于经济前景恶化,欧洲央行没有暗示降低利率,而是表示利率将保持"目前的水平",直到2020年中期。 但在周日,有两位消息人士立即表示,如果经济增长放缓,监管机构可能会再次降低欧洲央行的利率,因为强势欧元损害了欧元区。

Irina Maksimova,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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