empty
28.03.2025 09:19 AM
Markets Have Found the Culprits

If you don't get it the first time, you will the second. The S&P 500 sell-off, led by U.S. and foreign automaker shares, continued a second day after the imposition of 25% tariffs. Donald Trump threatened the European Union and Canada with retaliation should they respond jointly to the import duties, and companies have begun tallying up losses. The broad stock index is confidently moving toward the lower boundary of its medium-term trading range of 5500–5790, but blaming only the White House occupant for all its troubles would be misguided.

The sell-off of overvalued "Magnificent Seven" companies, slowing corporate profit growth, and a weakening U.S. economy contribute to a capital shift from North America to Europe. European indices are currently outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin. However, according to the world's largest asset manager, this advantage may not last long. BlackRock believes that Germany's fiscal stimulus will primarily benefit banks and defense companies — a very narrow group. Therefore, one shouldn't count on the EuroStoxx 50 and DAX 40 rally to continue at the same pace.

Performance of European vs. U.S. Stock Indices

This image is no longer relevant

By contrast, the U.S. stock market will likely receive a fresh boost once the situation surrounding Donald Trump's protectionist policies becomes clearer. Many companies will adapt to the tariffs, enabling the S&P 500 to grow again.

But first, the broad stock index would do well to shed some dead weight. In 2025, that weight comes from the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Back in February, they were trading at 45 times forward earnings. Only the sell-off has brought the P/E ratio down to 35 — still high, though the 11% drop in that figure is striking.

Q1 earnings season kicks off in a few weeks, and Wall Street's 7.1% earnings forecast is impressive. But that's four percentage points lower than what experts were projecting at the end of 2024. The discrepancy in estimates is above the historical average. Forecasts have been cut across all 11 S&P 500 sectors, and earnings growth is expected to slow in nine.

Earnings Forecast Trends by S&P 500 Sectors

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

The stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP reading of 2.4% shouldn't be misleading. For January–March, Bloomberg analysts expect GDP growth to slow to 1–1.5%, and the Atlanta Fed's leading indicator signals an even weaker pace — just 0.2%. Inflation remains elevated, tying the Fed's hands and preventing the central bank from throwing markets a lifeline.

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 continues its previously forecasted move from the upper boundary of its consolidation range (5500–5790) toward the lower bound. It makes sense to hold and even build on short positions once support at 5670 is broken — especially since the Broadening Wedge pattern is playing out clearly.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is regaining ground after Friday's decline, trading just below the psychological level of 1.1000 amid mixed signals. The U.S. dollar is struggling to capitalize

Irina Yanina 18:55 2025-04-07 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

At the moment, gold has halted its corrective decline from the all-time high reached last week. The recent plunge in global financial markets, triggered by the mutual tariffs initiated

Irina Yanina 18:52 2025-04-07 UTC+2

Jerome Powell Is Not Ready to Intervene

Investors were deeply disappointed when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made it clear during his Friday speech at the end of last week that he does not intend to intervene

Jakub Novak 11:11 2025-04-07 UTC+2

Markets Descend Further into Chaos (Expect Renewed Declines in #SPX and #NDX)

The global market crash continues. The trade war declared by Donald Trump on much of the world is in full swing. Investors have stopped reacting to economic data, even though

Pati Gani 10:08 2025-04-07 UTC+2

The Market Left Empty-Handed

The market appeared to have bottomed out; however, someone knocked from below. A two-day selloff triggered by Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs turned out to be the fourth-worst in the history

Marek Petkovich 09:44 2025-04-07 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 7? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Monday. After last week's developments, we believe these events will have no impact on the movements of either currency pair. Nonetheless, today's

Paolo Greco 07:03 2025-04-07 UTC+2

EUR/USD Weekly Preview: U.S. Inflation Reports and the Fate of the "Big Tariffs"

The upcoming week promises to be just as volatile as the previous one. The so-called "big tariffs," which are set to take effect on April 9, are at the center

Irina Manzenko 06:13 2025-04-07 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – April 7. The British Pound Delivered a Major Surprise on Friday

The GBP/USD currency pair rose 280 pips between Wednesday and Thursday, only to crash by 340 on Friday. These kinds of "flights" have become a regular occurrence lately. While

Paolo Greco 03:23 2025-04-07 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – April 7. Nonfarms and Powell Saved the Dollar

The EUR/USD currency pair lost over 300 pips on Wednesday and Thursday, but Friday brought a strong recovery. No one would have been surprised if the dollar had continued falling

Paolo Greco 03:23 2025-04-07 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is attracting some sellers for the second day in a row, despite the absence of any clear fundamental catalyst for a decline. Most likely, this is due to trading

Irina Yanina 11:50 2025-04-04 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.