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10.04.2025 08:21 PM
GBP/USD Analysis – April 10th
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The wave structure for the GBP/USD pair has also shifted to a bullish, impulsive formation — "thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave pattern is almost identical to that of the EUR/USD pair. Until February 28, we were observing the development of a convincing corrective structure that raised no red flags. However, demand for the U.S. dollar began to drop sharply thereafter, ultimately resulting in the formation of a five-wave bullish structure. Therefore, in the near future, we should expect the development of a three- or five-wave corrective sequence, followed by wave 3 of a new global bullish trend segment.

If we consider the fact that the news background from the UK had no impact on the sharp rise of the British pound, we can conclude that exchange rates are currently driven solely by Donald Trump. If (theoretically) Trump changes his stance on trade policy, it's possible the trend will also reverse — this time into a bearish one. For this reason, over the coming months (or perhaps even years), close attention must be paid to every action taken by the White House.

On Thursday, the GBP/USD exchange rate rose by another 110 basis points — and that's just by the start of the U.S. session. Many may be wondering: why is demand for the U.S. dollar dropping again? After all, Trump changed his stance, granted leniency to 75 countries, and initiated trade negotiations! The answer is simpler than it seems — and I've mentioned it before. The issue is that a trade deal between China and Israel doesn't interest the market. While trade volume between these countries may not be insignificant, it pales in comparison to trade flows between China, the European Union, and the United States. Thus, what most market participants care about is the trade relationship within this "love triangle" — not the other 75 countries that were granted a 90-day tariff amnesty.

The market understands clearly that the real threat of recession in the U.S. stems from the trade war with major players, not economically or geographically minor African or Balkan countries. So, what has changed in relations between Washington and Beijing or Brussels? Tariffs on Chinese imports have already reached 125%, and the EU — due to the complexity of its decision-making process — simply cannot respond quickly to Trump. The U.S. president manages to announce multiple rounds of tariffs on the EU, rescind some of them, and meanwhile, the European Union is still voting on how to respond to the very first set. At this point, it's entirely unclear whether the "leniency" applies to the EU, and whether the EU will soon impose its own countermeasures against all U.S. tariffs. Since there is no de-escalation within the "love triangle," there's no reason to believe the trade war is over. As a result, demand for the U.S. dollar is once again falling.

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General Conclusions

The wave structure of the GBP/USD pair has shifted. We are now dealing with a bullish, impulsive phase of the trend. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets could face many more shocks and reversals that defy both wave analysis and any other form of technical analysis. Consequently, we should now expect a corrective wave sequence — its size will depend on Trump and how quickly new tariffs are imposed. Afterward, wave 3 of the new bullish segment can be anticipated — but only if Trump's stance on trade policy does not undergo a 180-degree reversal.

On the higher wave scale, the wave pattern has also shifted to a bullish configuration. We can now assume the development of a bullish trend segment. The nearest targets are 1.2782 and 1.2650.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are harder to trade and often signal upcoming changes.
  2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
  3. There's never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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